According to @Matt_Hougan, Bitcoin’s spot price is being set by marginal buyers from new professional investors, making shifts in net institutional demand the key driver. Source: Matt Hougan, X post dated Jan 13, 2026. He highlighted Bradley Duke’s question that recent BTC weakness blamed on deteriorating liquidity and long-term holder selling may instead reflect a fall in net institutional demand, implying prices would improve if that demand returns (presented as his hypothesis). Source: Bradley Duke, X post dated Jan 13, 2026; Matt Hougan, X post dated Jan 13, 2026. For trading, prioritize tracking U.S. spot BTC ETF creations and redemptions as a direct proxy for institutional net demand. Source: ETF issuers including iShares by BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK 21Shares daily flow reports; listing exchanges Cboe and Nasdaq public notices. Cross-check institutional positioning via CME Bitcoin futures open interest and the spot to futures basis to gauge leverage and demand intensity. Source: CME Group Bitcoin futures contract data and market statistics. Validate flow direction with net transfers on institutional venues such as Coinbase Institutional and LMAX Digital, and with large on-chain exchange flows from analytics providers. Source: Coinbase Institutional updates, LMAX Digital market data, and on-chain data providers such as Glassnode. A sustained pickup across these proxies would corroborate returning institutional demand, while deterioration would confirm the current thesis of weaker marginal buying. Source: Synthesis of the above sources and the institutional-demand thesis highlighted by Matt Hougan and Bradley Duke on X, Jan 13, 2026.

According to @Andre_Dragosch on Twitter, the share of Bitcoin ETF volume in the total bitcoin spot market volume has reached a new all-time high, highlighting the growing influence of Bitcoin ETFs on overall market dynamics. This trend reinforces the hypothesis that Bitcoin ETFs are acting as the new marginal buyers in the market. Traders should closely monitor ETF flows as they increasingly drive liquidity and price action in the bitcoin market (source: @Andre_Dragosch, June 2, 2025).

According to a recent analysis, Bitcoin ETFs have seen very positive net inflows, positioning them as the 'marginal buyer' in the Bitcoin market since January 2024. These inflows are crucial as they can notably influence whether BTC spot exchanges experience negative or positive net buying volumes, highlighting the significant role of ETFs in current trading dynamics.